Positions for and Against Abortion

Many points come up in the abortion debate. Heres a look at abortion from both sides: 10 arguments for abortion and 10 arguments against abortion, for a total of 20 statements that represent a range of topics as seen from both sides. Pro-Life Arguments Since life begins at conception, abortion is akin to murder as it is the act of taking human life. Abortion is in direct defiance of the commonly accepted idea of the sanctity of human lifeNo civilized society permits one human to intentionally harm or take the life of another human without punishment, and abortion is no different.Adoption is a viable alternative to abortion and accomplishes the same result. And with 1.5 million American families wanting to adopt a child, there is no such thing as an unwanted child.An abortion can result in medical complications later in life; the risk of ectopic pregnancies doubles and the chance of a miscarriage and pelvic inflammatory disease also increases.In the instance of rape and incest, proper medical care can ensure that a woman will not get pregnant. Abortion punishes the unborn child who committed no crime; instead, it is the perpetrator who should be punished.Abortion should not be used as another form of contraception.For women who dema nd complete control of their body, control should include preventing the risk of unwanted pregnancy through the responsible use of contraception or, if that is not possible, through abstinence.Many Americans who pay taxes are opposed to abortion, therefore its morally wrong to use tax dollars to fund abortion.Those who choose abortions are often minors or young women with insufficient life experience to understand fully what they are doing. Many have lifelong regrets afterward.Abortion frequently causes intense psychological pain and stress. Pro-Choice Arguments Nearly all abortions take place in the first trimester when a fetus is attached by the placenta and umbilical cord to the mother. As such, its health is dependent on her health, and cannot be regarded as a separate entity as it cannot exist outside her womb.The concept of personhood is different from the concept of human life. Human life occurs at conception, but fertilized eggs used for in vitro fertilization are also human lives and those not implanted are routinely thrown away. Is this murder, and if not, then how is abortion murder?Adoption is not an alternative to abortion because it remains the womans choice whether or not to give her child up for adoption. Statistics show that very few women who give birth choose to give up their babies; less than 3 percent of white unmarried women and less than 2 percent of percent black​ unmarried women.Abortion is a safe medical procedure. The vast majority of women (88 percent) who have an abortion do so in their first trimester. Me dical abortions have less than 0.5 percent risk of serious complications and do not affect a womans health or future ability to become pregnant or give birth.In the case of rape or incest, forcing a woman made pregnant by this violent act would cause further psychological harm to the victim. Often a woman is too afraid to speak up or is unaware she is pregnant, thus the morning after pill is ineffective in these situations.Abortion is not used as a form of contraception. Pregnancy can occur even with responsible contraceptive use. Only 8Â  percent of women who have abortions do not use any form of birth control, and that is due more to individual carelessness than to the availability of abortion.The ability of a woman to have control of her body is critical to civil rights. Take away her reproductive choice and you step onto a slippery slope. If the government can force a woman to continue a pregnancy, what about forcing a woman to use contraception or undergo sterilization?Taxpaye r dollars are used to enable poor women to access the same medical services as rich women, and abortion is one of these services. Funding abortion is no different from funding a war in the Mideast. For those who are opposed, the place to express outrage is in the voting booth.Teenagers who become mothers have grim prospects for the future. They are much more likely to leave school; receive inadequate prenatal care; rely on public assistance to raise a child; develop health problems; or end up divorced.Like any other difficult situation, abortion creates stress. Yet the American Psychological Association found that stress was greatest prior to an abortion and that there was no evidence of post-abortion syndrome.

Essay about Freedom and Slavery - 772 Words

History 141 Freedom and Slavery The United States promotes that freedom is a right deserved by all humanity. Throughout the history of America the government has found ways to deprive selected people this right by race, gender, class and in other ways as well for its own benefit. This is a boundary of freedom. Boundaries of freedom outline who is able to enjoy their freedom and who isn’t. These people alter with time and as history unfolds. Slavery and the journey of their freedom was a big part of the foundation of the United States. At the beginning of the Civil War, Lincoln’s goal was to restore the Union and planned on keeping slavery present in the states. African American’s journey to freedom and what freedom means was a long†¦show more content†¦They could not rebel without repercussions and could not betray or leave their owner. They had free labor that could not go anywhere; slavery was a huge benefit and was like a dream for a plantation owner. They were essential to product ion and cultivation of crops and plantations. By 1700, slavery was existent in all of the colonies. The House of Burgesses realized that slaves were an extremely important part of the labor force and therefore, to the economy. A new slave code was enacted in 1705 stating that slaves were property of their owners and to the white community. Slaves were the legal responsibility of the master and if they started to rebel it was the master’s obligation to keep them in line. Slavery also brought a new division of people to the New World. The slaves that were transported to the colonies for labor were not all from the same culture, race or society. They spoke different languages, had diverse customs and had many various religions. Many of these people would have never come in contact with each other if not for this slave trade. An overall stereotype of African’s was what they now where known as. There cultures and ideologies emerged into a single background and ancestry for people born into this lifestyle and they no longer came from different tribes or kinships. There new culture was based on African traditions, English fundamentals and American standards. This could almost be considered as the first installmentShow MoreRelatedSlavery and Freedom868 Words   |  4 PagesAmerican slavery and American freedom go together hand in hand. Morgan argues that many historians seem to ignore writing about the early development of American freedom simply b ecause it was shaped by the rise of slavery. It seems ironic that while one group of people is trying to break the mold and become liberated, that same group is making others confined and shattering their respectability. The aspects of liberty, race, and slavery are closely intertwined in the essay, Slavery and Freedom: TheRead MoreSlavery Fight for Freedom804 Words   |  4 PagesSlavery Fight for Freedom During the course of the slave trade millions of Africans became involuntary immigrants to the New World. Some African captives resisted enslavement by fleeing from slave forts on the coast of West African. Others mutinied on board slave trading vessels, or cast themselves into the ocean, rather facing death than enslavement. In the New World there were those who ran away from their owners, ran away among the Indians, formed maroon societies, revolted, feigned sicknessRead MoreSlavery And The End Of Freedom912 Words   |  4 Pagespeaceful life in which they were able to enjoy their freedom. However, their lives rapidly changed when Europeans arrived in their homeland. The early sixteen hundreds was the beginning of slavery and the end of freedom for many Africans. Getting shipped into a new country against your will would certainly be a traumatic and painful adjustment. The Africans had to overcome unfathomable obstacles just to survive the journey to America. Slavery was just gain ing popularity in this time period, seeingRead MoreThe Dichotomy Of Freedom And Slavery Essay2041 Words   |  9 PagesThe dichotomy of freedom and slavery in rhetoric and rise of the United States of America has long been an enigma, a source of endless debate for scholars and citizens alike who wonder how a nation steeped in the ideals of republicanism could so easily subjugate and enslave an entire group of people. The Chesapeake region was home to America’s great statesmen, men who espoused ideals of freedom and liberty from tyranny. Yet at the same time, these men held hundreds of men, women, and children inRead MoreSlavery Is The Key For Achieving Freedom1672 Words   |  7 Pagesbecause we have to. But 200 years ago, things were much different. Slavery unfortunately existed in our society, and slaves weren’t granted the gift of education. By not having an education, they were not able to completely understand their situation, and therefore unable to get out of it. Slaves had a limited option in achieving freedom, and in order to do so, they had to become educated, enough to be able to understand slavery, and they had to be religious to be able to see through the hypocrisyRead MoreHistory: Slavery and American Freedom1104 Words   |  5 PagesSummary I American Slavery, American Freedom written by Edmund S. Morgan captures the history of Virginia while keeping focusing on the social and political elements that uplifted the way of slavery. With the focus on Virginia, the book also probes the central paradox of American history: how a people could have developed the dedication to human liberty and dignity exhibited by the leaders of the American Revolution and at the same time have developed and maintained a system of labor that deniedRead MoreAmerican Slavery, American Freedom Essay1174 Words   |  5 PagesEdmund S. Morgan’s famous novel American Slavery, American Freedom was published by Norton in 1975, and since then has been a compelling scholarship in which he portrays how the first stages of America began to develop and prosper. Within his researched narrative, Morgan displays the question of how society with the influence of the leaders of the American Revolution, could have grown so devoted to human freedom while at the same time conformed to a system of labor that fully revoked human dignityRead More Slavery Fight For Freedom Essay802 Words   |  4 Pages Slavery Fight for Freedom During the course of the slave trade millions of Africans became involuntary immigrants to the New World. Some African captives resisted enslavement by fleeing from slave forts on the coast of West African. Others mutinied on board slave trading vessels, or cast themselves into the ocean, rather facing death than enslavement. In the New World there were those who ran away from their owners, ran away among the Indians, formed maroon societies, revolted, feigned sicknessRead MoreSlavery, Freedom And Sectional Conflict2170 Words   |  9 PagesSlavery, Freedom and Sectional Conflict in America prior to the Civil War In the United States of America after the Revolutionary War, freedom was a very relative term. According to the constitution all men were created equal and therefore all men are free. However, in this time prior to the American Civil War this was not the case. There existed, what would eventually be called an immoral evil by some abolitionists in, slavery. Slaves were African-Americans brought to the United States, specificallyRead More The Relationship Between Slavery and Freedom Essay852 Words   |  4 PagesBetween Slavery and Freedom For Edmund S. Morgan American slavery and American freedom go together hand in hand. Morgan argues that many historians seem to ignore writing about the early development of American freedom simply because it was shaped by the rise of slavery. It seems ironic that while one group of people is trying to break the mold and become liberated, that same group is making others confined and shattering their respectability. The aspects of liberty, race, and slavery are closely

Psychology, Nature Vs. Nurture Example For Students

Psychology, Nature Vs. Nurture Nightly on the news, you see stories about multiple instances of violence: killings, shootings, murders and such. In the school settings, kids get bullied on the playground or even in the classroom. All of these are forms of aggression, but does anyone stop and think why we are that way? The answer is found in the classic debate in Psychology, Nature vs. Nurture. Aggression is caused by learned behavior, not through genetics. There are two sides of this debate, Nature and Nurture. Nature refers to something that you’re born with and are not able to change. People that follow this are called Nativists. They believe that the traits that you have are passed down through genetics. Nurture means that your personality traits are based on your environment. For example, the conditions under which you were raised. Another factor can be your interactions with people and experiences that happened in childhood. The people that support this idea are called Empiricists (Butler). I side with the Empiricists, that you are able to become a certain way because of your environment. The idea of aggression within Nature vs. Nurture was first tested in an experiment, The Bobo Doll Experiment. There have been multiple studies that test the concept of Nature vs. Nurture. In the Bobo Doll Experiment done in 1961 by Albert Bandura, he wanted to study if aggression is able to be acquired through observation. After the study, he found out that his hypothesis was right, that aggression can be learned through observing. The children that were exposed to seeing an adult in that study being aggressive were aggressive when they were left with the Bobo Doll. Children that were exposed to nice toys, like teacups and dolls were not aggressive towards Bobo. Even though this experiment was done over 50 years ago, it is still valid. There is one thing that is a flaw in this experiment. Some of the kids could have already been afraid of clowns, so they might act more aggressively towards it. Based on my observations, the aggressive personality trait is related to nurture. Some of the traits that people have are based on behavior they have seen or learned from other people. As well, the way that you are raised can be a factor. If you grew up in a house with violence, more than likely you will grow up seeing that as acceptable behavior. Nativists have a valid point when they talk about Nature. The thing is, people do not tend to be the same person all of their lives. Through exposure, your personality traits could change. Also, you more than likely will not have the same friends. You may gain and lose friends over time. Genetically, Aggression can be viewed as a trait. particular gene variants of Pet-1 are associated with excessive anxiety or violent activity in humans, then test to detect these variants might be useful for early diagnosis of people who may be at risk for these abnormal behaviors (USA Today) There are more important traits than anxiety that we need to worry about such as Depression, Schophenia, and Multiple Personality Disorder. These have underlying tones of aggression, but are not passed down genetically. Comparing two studies, the Bobo Doll Experiment and another unnamed experiment, involving families, investigated the Nature vs. Nurture question. Rana and Molhortra mentioned a study by Gauze, Bukowski, Sipolla (1996) that found parental rejection leads to aggressive behavior in children. That is understandable behavior, because the kids are not getting the attention they wanted. Since they are not getting the attention they wanted it could be an act of rebellion, or even how they cope with it. In the Bobo Doll experiment, the children were not with their parents, but role models of the same and opposite sex. With parents and children, their relationships can affect behavior, including aggression. Aggression can also stem from children s relationships with their parents. According to Sengsavand and Krettenaur, Similar to aggression, parent-child relationships can be a major predictor of many developmental domains Parenting can play a huge part in someone s personality and upbringing. If there is a lack of parenting skills, it will end up showing in their children s behavior. Parents may directly or indirectly teach their children to interpret ambiguous social information in a hostile, relationally aggressive manner I agree with this, that children are a product of their own environment. Another place that children can learn from is from peers and classmates. .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336 , .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336 .postImageUrl , .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336 .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336 , .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336:hover , .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336:visited , .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336:active { border:0!important; } .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336 .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336 { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336:active , .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336 .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336 .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336 .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336 .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336 .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336 .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .uab19b823a7713f4721a6c29b58737336:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: Science Essay TopicThe area as well where kids can learn aggression is from their peers and in the school setting. For age, results revealed that younger children reported significantly higher aggressive intentions than older children. (Charters and Duffy) Children may not be aggressive at all, but are doing so to fit in with their friends. Berkowtiz claimed aggression is not linked to brain structures for aggressive instinct, and that aggression is provoked by external stimuli. (qtd. in Ferguson) Aggressiveness differs between the sexes, and there are different ways that they deal with it. For Boys the relation between the classroom environment and school aggression was explained in part by their influence this environment exerts. (Lopez et al.) Through gender roles, boys are conditioned to be more aggressive and physical than girls. When kids get a cut, boys are told that they just need to get up, rub some dirt in it and get up. If a girl gets hurt, they comfort her and tell her it s okay. Nurture makes more sense than Nature. It reinforces behavior, and emotionally stable children are non-aggressive. Studies show that we would not be the people we are today without positive outside influences. The environment that one grows up is ultimately the number one factor dealing with the person s identity, personality and aggressive behavior. As they say, the apple does not fall far from the tree.

Slade Plating free essay sample

An Analysis of the Slade Plating Department Case John Couchell Wingate University Slade Company is a small but prosperous manufacturer of metal products located in central Michigan. It employs 500 workers who are engaged in producing a large variety of clamps, inserts, knobs and similar items. Despite the success of Slade Company, the manufacturer faces problems in the plating department. The production manager, Ralph Porter, is concerned about dishonesty among employees, abusing the clocking system for logging in the work hours. The typical workweek in the department is 60 hours, with the first 40 hours paid on a straight time basis while additional hours were paid 50% higher (100% higher for weekend work). Typical workdays are from 7. 00 to 7. 00 pm. Since the supervisors leave around 5 pm, one employee can stay late and punch-out for everyone. On the surface, the main problem faced by the company is the abuse of the time clock and the unethical behavior of the employees. We will write a custom essay sample on Slade Plating or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page However, the most significant issue that needs to be resolved in the plating department is how the employees are paid. Pay is considered low for the central Michigan area. Employees typically start a few dollars above minimum wage, with small increases given over time based on seniority and skill. In addition to the low pay, working hours in this department are long. To keep employee training and benefit costs down, the Slade Company practice is to increase overtime rather than hire new employees. Pay is an extremely important issue not just to the Slade employees but to any employee. The low pay has created an atmosphere promoting the unethical behavior. The employees have developed a â€Å"you owe me† attitude. They are intentionally abusing the time clock in order to get what they perceive to be a fair wage. Their actions are also accepted as the norm. The company seems to be overlooking this behavior since the supervisors are leaving before all the work is completed. This action by the company is unacceptable. Higher wages would create a competitive community wage and would reduce the number of hours worked. To further understand the problem within the company, we also need to understand the existing culture. Different informal groups are formed, characterized by different behavior patterns and by ethnicity. The largest group is Sartos, which is named after Tony Sarto, an Italian and the most respected member and arbiter. The group is united, with cultural bounds and common social activities. They share the same working conditions, show solidarity and organized a punch out rotation. They operate as a coherent team to increase their productivity during the peak hours, allowing them to maintain a satisfying production output and self-manage their working hours. Henry Clark an Anglo-Saxon acts as the informal leader on his group, which follows Sarto’s behaviors. However, Clarks group does not have Sartos strong bounds, even though they aspire to. The remainder of the people in the plating department stayed mostly to themselves or associated in pairs or threesomes. The Slade Company management appears to be overlooking the role that group dynamics plays in their operation. In our textbook, the authors (Robbins and Judge) distinguish between different types of groups. They identify two main types of groups, the formal and the informal. The groups in the Slade Company are informal because they are neither formally structured nor organizationally determined. These groups naturally form within the company because of a need for social contact. For example, the Sarto group often joined in parties and took weekend trips together. These work groups have properties that shape individual behavior and go a long way toward explaining and predicting individual behavior within the group as well as the performance of the group itself. Some of these properties are roles, norms, status, size and cohesiveness. Roles are the expected behavior patterns attributed to someone occupying a position within the group. Norms are the acceptable behavioral standards that are shared by members of the group. Status is a socially defined position or rank given to the group or it’s members by others. The size of the group affects the group’s overall behavior. Cohesiveness is the degree to which group members are attracted to each other and are motivated to stay in the group. Both the Sarto and Clark groups shared these properties. (Robbins and Judge, pp 276-293) Slade’s competitive market is metal product market. It can be analyzed by using Porter’s Five Forces Model: threat of new entrants/potential competitors, internal rivalry and competition among established companies, the bargaining power of buyers, bargaining power of suppliers, and threat of substitute products is high. The risk of entry by potential competitors is high. (Recklies, p1). The risk of entry by potential competitors is high. The capital requirement of small metal companies is not high, so building and establishing this kind of company does not need many resources. In addition, brand loyal of the current existence customers is not very strong thus; new entrants are able to compete to enter the market. In addition, the competition between existing players in this industry is high. Many companies produce different kinds of metal products in the market. Besides, the bargaining power of buyers The capital requirement of small metal companies is not high, so building and establishing this kind of company does not need many resources. In addition, brand loyalty by existing customers is not very strong so new entrants are able to compete to enter the market. In addition, the internal rivalry and competition in this industry is high. Many companies produce different kinds of metal products in the market. The bargaining power of buyers is high because product difference for the buyers of the metal products is small and the cost of switching for the buyers is low. It is not easy to differentiate the quality of one metal product from another. The number of substitutes of metal products is also high thus; the buyers have great bargaining power. In addition, the bargaining power of the sources of inputs is high. The switching costs from one supplier to another are high because there are not many substitutes for the particular input for metal products. These five forces explain the wide fluctuation in order quantities and delivery timing priorities. The volume of orders fluctuated in response to business conditions in the primary industries that Slade served. The role of the informal leader appears to be overlooked by management within Slade Company. An informal leader is someone within an organization or work unit who, by virtue of how he or she is perceived by his peers (or others in the organization) is seen as worthy of paying attention to, or following. The major thing that distinguishes an informal leader from a formal one is that the informal leader does NOT hold a position of power or formal authority over those that choose to follow him or her. The ability for an informal leader to influence or lead others rests on the ability of that person to evoke respect, confidence, and trust in others (McCrimmon, p1). Informal leaders such as Tony Sarto and Harry Clark can be exceedingly valuable to their company, and to the success of formal leaders. Slade Company needs to take advantage of them and give them formal responsibilities by making one or both of them supervisors. In order to remedy the plating department’s problems, a plan has to be developed and taken to the production manager, Ralph Porter that will result in a positive shift in culture and open up more lines of communication. The plan should be very forthcoming and not try to cover up any problems. The initial part of the plan should address the pay issue. Hourly wages should be increased and the possibility of profit sharing should be explored. At the same time, in order not to bankrupt the company, overtime should be eliminated or drastically reduced. This change in the pay system should make the employees happier and more productive. It will also go a long way toward reducing the ethical issue of punching the time clock. Another part of the plan should involve a shift in personnel. Some employees like Herman and Otto Schell, whose behavior can best be described as deviant should be either forced to retire early, take a position with less responsibility or asked to leave. Other employees like Sarto and Clark should be promoted to supervisory positions. These new supervisors will create work teams that will compete and increase productivity. Promoting employees from within the department will create a positive atmosphere for the employees by providing opportunities for them to advance. The final part of the plan would be to explore the possibility of recommending that work hours be changed to maximize productivity. For example, could the work be divided into shifts and the plant kept open longer during the week? In addition, would it be cost effective to shut down the plant on weekends thereby reducing overhead costs? Another aspect of the plan would address more of the social needs of the employees. This will demonstrate management’s concern for employees’ well being as people, and not just plating machines. First, the plan should recommend constructing a well-equipped lunchroom adjacent to the plating department. The cost of this lunchroom would be minimal and it would eliminate the groups congregating for lunch on the fire escape. Secondly, company social outings should include the entire Slade Plating Department and members of upper management. This would build stronger bonds within the company and show employees that management is concerned. If these recommendations are adopted, Slade Company would be more fiscally viable, their employees would have more job security, and in the end, they would be happier. References Dagmar Recklies (2001) â€Å"Porter’s Five Forces† http://www. themanager. org/pdf/p5f. pdf McCrimmon, Mitch (2007) â€Å"What is Informal Leadership. † http://businessmanagement. suite101. com/article. cfm Robbins, Stephen P. and Judge, Timothy A. (2009). â€Å"Organizational Behavior. † Prentice Hall Publishers, pp. 276-293.

War of 1812 Causes

War of 1812 Causes The War of 1812 is generally thought to have been provoked by American outrage over the impressment of American sailors by the Britains Royal Navy. And while impressment was a major factor behind the declaration of war by the United States against Britain, there were other significant issues fueling the American march toward war. During the first three decades of American independence there was a general feeling that the British government had very little respect for the young United States. And during the Napoleonic Wars the British government actively sought to meddle with - or completely suppress - American trade with European nations. British arrogance and hostility went so far as to include a deadly attack by the British frigate HMS Leopard upon USS Chesapeake in 1807. The Chesapeake and Leopard affair, which began when the British officer boarded the American ship demanding to seize sailors believed to be deserters from British ships, nearly triggered a war. In late 1807, President Thomas Jefferson, seeking to avoid war while calming public outcry against British insults to American sovereignty, had enacted the Embargo Act of 1807. The law succeeded in avoiding a war with Britain at the time. However, the Embargo Act was generally seen as a failed policy, as turned out to be more harmful to the United States than to its intended targets, Britain and France. When James Madison became president in early 1809 he also sought to avoid war with Britain. But British actions, and a continuing drumbeat for war in the U.S. Congress, seemed destined to make make a new war with Britain unavoidable. The slogan Free Trade and Sailors Rights became a rallying cry. Madison, Congress, and the Move Toward War In early June 1812 President James Madison sent a message to Congress in which he listed complaints about British behavior toward America. Madison raised several issues: ImpressmentContinual harassment of American commerce by British warshipsBritish laws, known as Orders in Council, declaring blockades against American ships bound for European portsAttacks by savages on one of our extensive frontiers believed to be instigated by British troops in Canada The U.S. Congress was being steered at the time by an aggressive faction of young legislators in the House of Representatives known as the War Hawks. Henry Clay, a leader of the War Hawks, was a young member of Congress from Kentucky. Representing the views of Americans living in the West, Clay believed that war with Britain would not only restore American prestige, it would also provide a great benefit in territory. An openly stated goal of the western War Hawks was for the United States to invade and seize Canada. And there was a common, though deeply misguided, belief that it would be easy to achieve. (Once the war began, American actions along the Canadian border tended to be frustrating at best, and Americans never came close to conquering the British territory.) The War of 1812 has often been called Americas Second War for Independence, and that title is appropriate. The young United States government was determined to make Britain respect it. The United States Declared War In June 1812 Following the message sent by President Madison, the United States Senate and the House of Representatives held votes on whether to go to war. The vote in the House of Representatives was held on June 4, 1812, and members voted 79 to 49 to go to war. In the House vote, the members of Congress supporting the war tended to be from the South and West, and those opposed from the Northeast. The U.S. Senate, on June 17, 1812, voted 19 to 13 to go to war. In the Senate the vote also tended to be along regional lines, with most of the votes against the war coming from the Northeast. With so many members of Congress voting against going to war, the War of 1812 was always controversial. The official Declaration of War was signed by President James Madison on June 18, 1812. It read as follows: Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That war be and is hereby declared to exist between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland and the dependencies thereof, and the United States of America and their territories; and the President of the United States is hereby authorized to use the whole land and naval force of the United States, to carry the same into effect, and to issue private armed vessels of the United States commissions or letters of marque and general reprisal, in such form as he shall think proper, and under the seal of the United States, against the vessels, goods, and effects of the government of the said United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, and the subjects thereof. American Preparations While the war not declared until late June 1812, the United States government had been actively making preparations for the outbreak of war. In early 1812 the Congress had passed a law actively calling for volunteers for the U.S. Army, which had remained fairly small in the years following independence. American forces under the command of General William Hull had started marching from Ohio toward Fort Detroit (site of present day Detroit, Michigan) in late May 1812. The plan was for Hulls forces to invade Canada, and the proposed invasion force was already in position by the time war was declared. (The invasion proved to be a disaster, however, when Hull surrendered Fort Detroit to the British that summer.) American naval forces had also been prepared for the outbreak of war. And given the slowness of communication, some American ships in the early summer of 1812 attacked British ships whose commanders had not yet learned of the official outbreak of the war. Widespread Opposition to the War The fact that the war was not universally popular proved to be a problem, especially when the early phases of the war, such as the military fiasco at Fort Detroit, went badly. Even before the fighting began, opposition to the war caused major problems. In Baltimore a riot broke out when a vocal anti-war faction was attacked. In other cities speeches against the war were popular. A young lawyer in New England, Daniel Webster, delivered an eloquent address about the war on July 4, 1812. Webster noted that he opposed the war, but as it was now national policy, he was obligated to support it. Though patriotism often ran high, and was boosted by some of the successes of the underdog U.S. Navy, the general feeling in some parts of the country, particularly New England, was that the war had been a bad idea. As it became obvious that the war would be costly and may prove to be impossible to win militarily, the desire to find a peaceful end to the conflict intensified. American officials were eventually dispatched to Europe to work toward a negotiated settlement, the result of which was the Treaty of Ghent. When the war officially ended with the signing of the treaty, there was no clear winner. And, on paper, both sides admitted that things would return to how they had been before hostilities began. However, in a realistic sense, the United States had proven itself to be an independent nation capable of defending itself. And Britain, perhaps from having noticed that the American forces seemed to become stronger as the war went on, made no further attempts to undermine American sovereignty. And one result of the war, which was noted by Albert Gallatin, the secretary of the treasury, was that the controversy around it, and the way the nation came together, had essentially united the nation.

The Cherokee Princess Myth - Common Family Legends

The Cherokee Princess Myth - Common Family Legends My great-great-grandmother was a Cherokee Indian princess! How many of you have heard a similar statement made by one of your relatives? As soon as you hear that princess label, the red warning flags should go up. While they are sometimes true, stories of Native American ancestry in the family tree are often more fiction than fact. The Story Goes Family stories of Native American ancestry often seem to refer to a Cherokee princess. Whats interesting about this particular legend is that it almost always seems to be a Cherokee princess, rather than Apache, Seminole, Navajo or Sioux - almost as if the phrase Cherokee princess has become a clichà ©. Keep in mind, however, that almost any story of Native American ancestry may be a myth, whether it involves the Cherokee or some other tribe. How it Began During the 20th century it was common for Cherokee men to use an endearing term to refer to their wives that roughly translated as princess. Many people believe this is how princess and Cherokee were joined in the popular Cherokee ancestry myth. Thus, the Cherokee princess may have really existed- not as royalty, but as a beloved and cherished wife. Some people also speculate that the myth was born in an attempt to overcome prejudice. For a white male marrying an Indian woman, a Cherokee princess may have been a little easier to swallow for the rest of the family. Proving or Disproving the Cherokee Princess Myth If you discover a Cherokee Princess story in your family, begin by losing any assumptions that the Native American ancestry, if it exists, has to be Cherokee. Instead, focus your questions and search on the more general goal of determining whether there is any Native American ancestry in the family, something that is usually untrue in the majority of such cases. Begin by asking questions about which specific family member was the one with Native American ancestry (if no one knows, this should throw up another red flag). If nothing else, at least try to narrow down the branch of the family, because the next step is to locate family records such as census records, death records, military records and records of land ownership looking for any clues to racial background. Learn about the area in which your ancestor lived as well, including what Native American tribes may have been there and during what time period. Native American census rolls and membership lists, as well as DNA tests can also potentially help you prove or disprove Native American ancestry in your family tree. See  Tracing Indian Ancestry  for more information. DNA Testing for Native American Ancestry DNA testing for Native American ancestry is generally most accurate if you can find someone on the direct paternal line (Y-DNA) or direct maternal line (mtDNA) to test, but unless you know which ancestor was believed to be Native American and can find a descendant down the direct paternal (father to son) or maternal (mother to daughter) line, it isnt always practical. Autosomal tests look at DNA on all branches of your family tree but, due to recombination, are not always useful if the Native American ancestry is more than 5–6 generations back in your tree. See Proving Native American Ancestry Using DNA by Roberta Estes for a detailed explanation of what DNA can and cant tell you. Research All Possibilities While the Cherokee Indian Princess story is almost guaranteed to be a myth, there is a chance that this cliche stems from some type of Native American ancestry. Treat this as you would any other genealogy search, and thoroughly research those ancestors in all available records.

First econ Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

First econ - Essay Example The term opportunity cost in the study of economics is used to refer to the cost associated with the next best option given up (Siebert 163). This means that while making a decision of whether to buy or consumer product A or product B, individuals end up facing a cost when they give up the benefits that they may have gained from consuming product A if they had forgone product A and consumed product B. These costs can include both monetary as well as psychological costs. I experience the application of opportunity cost in my daily life when I have to choose between two things at the same time. For example: I face the issue of opportunity cost when I have to select between studies and my favorite sports of cricket. If I study I face the cost of enjoying the most favorite sport in my life and the physical and health benefits that I may derive from playing sports. On the other hand if I play sports, I give up the benefits of scoring high grades at my educational institute and even may en d up failing which will result in monetary losses. The concept of demand and supply in the study of economics state that when the price for a particular good as well as service is high, it is most likely less in demand and when the price of a particular good or service is high it is most likely more in supply and vice-versa. I have experienced the application of the concept of demand and supply in relation to my hobby of playing cricket. When the prices of cricket bats are on the lower side I am most likely going to buy them but when I go to buy them there are very few bats that may seem attractive, while when the prices are higher I see more and more cricket bats on the shelves and they attract me a lot but I fail to purchase them since they are highly prices. Various economic concepts apply to our daily lives. The concept of opportunity cost is applied in my life when I have to select between studying and

Determination of Resistance to Fragmentation by the LOS Angeles Test Assignment

Determination of Resistance to Fragmentation by the LOS Angeles Test Method - Assignment Example 4. Compare the results of the test with the specifications and diagnose there appropriate use. Apparatus The apparatus that are used for this test are as follow and these all conform to the BSI standard â€Å"BSI. (1998-2006)EN 1097-2.. Tests for mechanical and physical properties of aggregates ? Part 2: Methods for the determination of resistance to fragmentation†. 1. Electronic Weighing Balance with a precision of 0.1 g 2. Test sieves used for los Angeles Test are of the aperture sizes of 1.6 , 10, 11.2/12.5 & 14 mm. 3. Los Angeles Apparatus with all parts and mechanisms. 4. 11 Spherical ball loads/charges with diameter of atleast 45 mm and atleast total weight of 4690g. 5. Miscellaneous apparatus for assistance in movement of material during the test. Procedure 1. The first step would be sampling and preparation of test specimen according to the that mentioned in the standards. BSI. (1998-2006) EN 1097-2dictates that an initial separation is done by sieve of 10mm and sieve no 14mm. Then from this acquired sample another specimen is produced which contains about 60-70% of passing of 12.5mm sieve and 30-40 % of passing of 11.2 mm sieve. 2. About 5000g of the above sample is prepared and exact weight is measured and recorded along with all details of the aggregate. 3. This sample is then shifted into the Los Angeles Apparatus and then 11 spherical charges are placed along with it. The lid of the drum is closed. 4. The drum is set to 500 rpms, then the sound proofing cabinet is closed and test is initiated. 5. When due rounds are done the fragmented sample is acquired from the drum and then sieved from sieve of 1.6 mm and the retained material is weighted. 6. Lastly the Los Angeles test Value is acquired through the following formula Los Angeles Value = L.A Value = x 100 Where FW= Final Weight retained on 1.6mm Sieve Data and Calculations Type of Aggregate = Recycled Aggregate Initial mass of the sample = 5000 g Final mass of the sample retained = 3778.39 g On 1.6 mm sieve Los Angeles Value = L.A Value = x 100 Where FW= Final Weight retained on 1.6mm Sieve L.A Value = x 100 = 24.43 % Type of Aggregate = Thames Valley (Natural Aggregate) Initial mass of the sample = 5000 g Final mass of the sample retained = 4100 g On 1.6 mm sieve Los Angeles Value = L.A Value = x 100 Where FW= Final Weight retained on 1.6mm Sieve L.A Value = x 100 = 18 % Discussion (a) Sources of Error There are several points during this experiment where that might cause an error in the test results.The first point which can be a source of error is the faulty preparation of standardized test specimen for testing, and the standards are not followed. Hence it is suggested that all specifications must be followed and exact percentages of aggregates are to be used.So that the test results can be corrected and recommendations validated.Then the no of rpm must be 500 and the no of charges must be exactly 11. Then the material must be properly handled and after fragmentat ion process it should be ensured that the all the sample is taken from the drum and sieved properly. Then throughout the sieving process the sieves should be proper that is the aperture size should be uniform throughout the sieve. Old and over used sieves might have larger openings in them, hence contaminating the standard samples. b) The above table is an

Veneration Without Understanding Essay Example for Free

Veneration Without Understanding Essay Siargao Island About 800 kilometers southeast of Manila is a surfing haven called Siargao Island, a 400-square kilometer island with white-sand beaches, reefs, and rough winds from the Pacific Ocean that whips up waves ideal for international surfing competitions. Siargao Island is where local and foreign surfers meet, daring each other to take on the next huge wave. It, however, has more to offer beyond surfing. Siargao Island has large mangrove forests and stretches of wetlands. The place also has well-preserved coral reefs. Puerto Princesa Subterranean River National Park Palawan with its capital Puerto Prinsesa City is the largest province in the country in terms of total area of jurisdiction. You’ll find the Puerto-Princesa Subterranean River National Park which is recently recognized as one of the â€Å"New 7 Wonders of Nature†. This park features a large limestone karst landscape with an underground river. The sire contains a full mountain-to-sea ecosystem and has some of the most important forests in Asia. Banawe Rice Terraces The Banawe Rice Terracesrecognized as one of the â€Å"Eight Wonders of the World† can be found in mountains of Ifugao Province in Luzon. These farmlands created in the mountains are fed by an ancient irrigation system from the rain-forest above the terraces. The Tourism industry has developed a number of activities for visitors which may include a sightseeing of the terraces and visits at the foot of the terraces. Manila Cathedral, Intramuros Manila Philippines Historical Manila! Manila is the capital of the Philippines, and is a beloved Philippine tourist spot due to its rich history. Some of the must see places in Manila include Rizal Park, where the Philippine national hero, Jose Rizal was martyred. Rizal Park includes the Manila Planetarium, part of Manila Bay, Quirino Grandstand, and Ocean Adventure. Fort Santiago is also a historical place to visit, featuring dungeons and cells and a museum dedicated for Rizal. Intramuros, also known as the Walled City, is sometimes called as the Philippines’ little Spain. The Philippines was colonized by the Spaniards for 300 years, and Intramuros still retains this part of history, showcasing beautiful Spanish houses, streets, and churches, minimally touched by modernization. Enjoy a calesa (horse driven carriage) ride, and transport yourself back in time. Cebu City Sinulog Festival Cebu City Philippines Cebu City, also known as the Queen City of the South is growing to be a popular destination for Philippines travel. This is because Cebu is a mixture of technology and natural resources. Cebu is beginning to follow the footsteps of Makati, with its high-rise buildings, huge shopping malls, and superior hotels. But despite this technological boom, Cebu has something else to offer.Surrounding the main island of Cebu, are little islands with beaches that can match the beauty of Boracay. Islands that are beginning to become tourist attractions are Malapascua Island, Bantayan Island, and the little yet known, but breath taking Camotes Island.January would be the best time to go to Cebu, as this is when the Sinulog Festival is held. This is Cebu City’s Fiesta, and at this time the streets become filled with performers in elaborate costumes and extravagant floats. Feast your eyes to the amazing colors and performances held at the streets of Cebu. You will surely be caught up in all t he festivity! Mount Apo, Davao Davao Philippines In Davao lies the highest peak of the Philippines, Mount Apo. This mountain towers over Davao at a majestic 10,311 feet above sea level. For mountaineering enthusiasts, Mount Apo is one to conquer. Along its trail lies an exotic display of nature, with a steaming blue lake, geysers and suplhur pillars, rainwater lakes and cascading waterfalls. Mount Apo is a definite sight to see. Davao also boasts its Samal Island as again one of the best beaches of the country. Samal island holds the luxurious Pearl Farm Resort, where guests can relax at a private retreat. The resort is named as such as the place was once an 11 hectare pearl farm, harvesting pink, white, and gold pearls from Sulu Sea. Davao is also famous for being the natural habitat of the Philippine’s National Bird, the Philippine Eagle. It is also the place where the king of all fruits, called the durian, flourishes. Truly, Davao is a place of majestic beauty. Silliman Hall Dumaguete Dumaguete City Dumaguete City, located at Negros Oriental, is a peaceful and provincial place, also known as the University Town. This is called as such because of the many universities that are located in the heart of this small city. Dumaguete is best known for Silliman University, one of the oldest and most beautiful universities in the whole country. This University is the home of 302 acacia trees, which contributes to the beauty and tranquility of the place. Also, in Silliman lies the oldest American structure left standing in the Philippines. This is the beautiful Silliman Hall which greets everyone who comes to Dumaguete, as it is located right in front of the sea. Dumaguete is also best known for Rizal Boulevard, which is a long boulevard beside the sea, with many restaurants and establishments across the street. There certainly is something to this little town, as people are known to come back time and time again to visit good old Dumaguete. Calle Crisologo at night Glimpse of the Past As I have said earlier, the Philippines was occupied by the forces of Spain for more than three centuries. This is the reason why the Spanish traditions have contributed a lot to the birth of Filipino culture, beliefs, and traditions. It is a living museum. There are a lot of ancestral houses in Vigan, Ilocos Sur. They house the pastthe marvelous and rich past. They were built from indigo dye, abel fabrics,and even gold. Youll be in awestruck if you see the grand staircases, broad floorboards, shiny capiz windows and ventanillas, and the cool azotea that can be found in the houses of the elite. The Calle Crisologo also offers the long lane of ancestral houses that once housed the Chinese businessmen. It is popularly known as the Kasanglayan. Visit Vigan, the only surviving colonial city in the country, and get immersed in the beauty of history. Sight-seeing at The Sleeping Dinosaur Upon passing by Mati Road, you can ask your driver for a quick stop to watch over the islands fantastic and delightful form. The island itself resembles more likely to a dinosaur fell in a deep slumber Mount Hamiguitan It is home to the worlds largest pygmy forest with impressive flora that counts of a total of 878 species. Its 600-hectare bonsai field is enchanting. Another attraction in this mountain can also be found known as the Tinagong Dagat or hidden sea. This mysterious lake is said to have high tide and low tide schedules, a phenomenon which remains unexplained up until now. Tibanban Island Wanna go trekking? Tibanban island is the ideal venue for that! A lighthouse was built on the top of the island for the purpose of warning for ships during at night. Aside from trekking, you can also dip through its white sand beach. Waniban Island Pristine and crystal clear water, powder-like white sand beach, sturdy mangroves and cavorting dolphins are the major fascination and attraction of the island. You can walk around the whole island in less than an hour. Go snorkeling, diving and sun bathing! San Victor Island This 3 hectares island is located at Baganga, Davao Oriental with powder-like white sand beach and lofty coconut grove. A perfect place for summer outings and getaways! Kawa-Kawa Falls Is the most bragged about waterfall which is located at San Isidro, Davao Oriental. Enjoy its 15 feet deep clear waters. The falls is surrounded by thick forest of century-old trees and rare wild orchids. You can have a picnic here or simply swim and relax yourself by the tranquility it brings. Aliwagwag Falls Considered as the longest cascading waterfalls in the Philippines located in the middle of the forest of Cateel, Davao Oriental. It is also one of the most beautiful waterfalls in the country. The falls seemed like a stairway to heaven with its 84 steps which measure from 6 100ft each steps. Balite Hot Spring Located at Baganga, Davao Oriental. Hot springs are known to cure illnesses such as rheumatism, dermatitis, itchiness, skin disease, etc. Its healing power somehow attracts tourist aside from the comfort and warmth it gives. Ave Maria is the best way to snorkel here, as you get astonished with the wide array of different and rich marine life that abounds here, that beams and dazzles in various colors, hues, sizes and shapes. Your date with nature here will not be complete without seeing the endangered turtles that inhabits the Turtle Island. For the record the Philippines has four of the six species of sea turtles in the world. Gumasa Beach Saranggani Gumasa Beach in Gian, Saranggani offers a powdery white sand that is just one hour away from General Santos City, the hometown of Filipino ring hero Manny Pacquiao, a seven-time world champion in seven weight categories. Unspoiled and pristine, this beach is a paradise at its best. Sandugan Beach, Siquijor Located at the northern island of Siquijor in the municipality of Larena, this low profile beach has one of the best scenery and breathtaking beaches in the Philippines. Siquijor is a sleepy Visayan province in the southern part of the country. Amanpulo Pamalican Island, Palawan Feel like you are a celebrity and would want to go to a beach where noted personalities like Naomi Campbell, Claudia Schiffer, David Benoit and the late US President John F. Kennedy Jr. have visited. But hold your horses for a while though, for this is an exclusive resort, in plain words you need to shell out nice sum of money to get into this exclusive resort. An exclusive getaway for the rich and famous, the place is the haven for prominent stars, super models, business scions and royalties. Moalboal, Panagsama Beach Cebu as a province boasts of Churches of antiquities that were built many many moons ago and offers finest diving spots. Moalboal that lies on the Cebu’s western coat is considered to be one of the best diving site in Asia and even in the world. Panagsama Beach, is home to some splendid marine life, like colorful corals, anemone, sponges and dazing reef fishes. Caliraya Lake, Caliraya, Laguna A place with gentle breeze emanating from the Sierra Madre Mountain Ranges and the mysterious Mount Banahaw, the place offers water sports such as fishing, jet skiing, boardsailing, windsurfing, and canoeing. You can stay at the leisure resorts surrounding the lake at an excellent accommodation without spending much. You may opt to have horseback riding, playing sports or just have picnic. The place also is just a one ride away from Pagsanjan Falls, a place where the final scence of Apocalypse Now was taken. You may visit Lucban too, the place where the famous Pahiyas Festival is being held, to see and buy for yourself the finest Barong Tagalog in the country as a souvenir Barong Tagalog is the national dress of Filipino men. Puerto Galera, Mindoro One of the most visited tourist destinations in the Philippines, is the Puerto Galera in Mindoro. With its coves sandwiched by the gentle swaying palm trees and crystal-clear turquoise water, a visit to Puerto Galera is a sort of a dream vacation or trip come true. Once a very rustic and dull rural town, its discovery by the late 1970’s paved the way for many tourists, domestic and foreigners to visit the place and get mesmerized with its natural charm and beauty. Diving and snorkeling enthusiasts will indeed enjoy discovering the colorful and very diverse marine life that abounds in the La Laguna Beach. Nightlife is very active here too, and can compete with that of Boracays and promises to be enjoying. You may also try kayaking, canoeing or banana boating to take full pleasure of having a wonderful sight seeing while you patrol the area. You may also want to give it a try having an unforgettable trek to the lush vegetation of the coves and see some lovely, and colorful birds around. Keep in mind that, fun never stops here in Puerto Galera and you are warmly invited here to quench your thirst of having a wholesome and awesome summer escapade.

On the Road Essay: The Motif of Inadequacy of the Language

The Motif of Inadequacy of the Language in On the Road  Ã‚     Ã‚  Ã‚   Henry Glass, a kid fresh out of a penitentiary in Indiana who takes a bus to Denver with Sal Paradise, tells him about his brush with the Bible in jail, and then explains the dangers of the phenomenon of signification (I firmly believe that Kerouac intended no deconstructionist subtext in the passage; nor is it likely to be an neo-Marxist attempt to explicate the class conflict between the signifiers and the signified): Anybody that's leaving jail soon and starts talking about his release date is 'signifying' to the other fellas that have to stay. We will take him by the neck and say, 'Don't signify with me!' Bad thing, to signify--y'hear me? (256) The use of the learned word by an eighteen year old jail-bird is truly funny. The comic effect here is based on the discrepancy between the standard meaning and contextual use of the word "to signify." There is a number of episodes in the novel with the same kind of humor: in the opening chapter of the novel, which describes his first visit to New York, Dean comes up with some absolutely moronic tirades. E.g., talking to Marilou, he mentions the necessity to "postpone all those leftover things concerning our personal lovethings and at once begin thinking of specific workplans. . ." (Kerouac 5). Or, when asked directly by Sal, whether he needed to con him for a place to stay, he starts talking about "Shopenhauer's dichotomy inwardly realized" (ibid.).    Dean's (mis)use of language can be somewhat redeemed by his intellectual virginity and his genuine desire to be like his high-browed friend; indeed, being earnest is important, and can excuse almost anything. But what should one think about the way Carl... ...rist--the heroes of the generation--never published (Krupat 407). Neither did Neil Cassidy, the silent genius behind the movement; but he by the example of his life provided the ideal which made Kerouac's gospel true.       Works Cited Ashida, Margaret E. "Frog's and Frozen Zen." Prairie Schooner 34 (1960): 199-206. Blackburn, William. "Han Shan Gets Drunk with the Butchers: Kerouac's Buddhism in On the Road, The Dharma Bums, and Desolation Angels." Literature East and West 21.1-4 (1977): 9-22. Suzuki, D.T. An introduction to Zen Buddhism. Ed. Christmas Humphreys; fwd. C.G. Jung. London: Rider, 1983. Kerouac, Jack. On the Road. Ed. Scott Donaldson. New York: Penguin, 1979. Krupat, Arnold. "Dean Moriarty as Saintly Hero." On the Road. Text and Criticism. By Jack Kerouac. Ed.Scott Donaldson. New York: Penguin, 1979. 397-411.      

Finance Manager

Fiscal Policy in Kenya: Looking Toward the Medium-to Long-Term By Kamau Thugge, Peter S Heller, and Jane Kiringai[1] Executive Summary Kenya’s authorities, in articulating their vision for the next two decades of Kenya’s development, understood clearly that fiscal policy would need to play a critical role in influencing the pace at which the economy will grow and its capacity to deal with the key challenges that will arise over the next several decades.Domestic policy challenges include a high population growth, rapid urbanization, significant weaknesses in infrastructural capacity, inadequate levels of investments, and pressures for decentralization. External challenges include security risks as well as an uncertain global economic growth environment. Fiscal policy will not only affect macroeconomic stability, but also whether Kenya can transition to a higher economic growth path, reduce its high poverty rate, and address its substantial income, asset, and regional ine qualities.The paper by Thugge, Heller and Kiringai examines whether Kenya’s medium-term fiscal policy strategy is responsive to addressing the potential scale of the challenges confronting Kenya, particularly given the inevitable uncertainties assicuated with the global economic environment. It also takes stock of the impact of recent developments on the viability of the original strategy. Kenya is likely to face in the next two decades and the scope of its policy goals for this period.Section II will briefly identify both the domestic policy challenges that Kenya’s fiscal policy-makers must address in coming years as well as the different potential external policy environments within which these policies must be formulated. Section III reviews the Government of Kenya’s (GOK) fiscal policy strategy, as broadly embodied in its recently issued long-run perspective–Vision 2030, but more concretely in the Medium Term Plan for 2008/09-2012/13 and the Medium-Te rm Budget Strategy Paper (MTBSP) for 2009/10-11/12.In particular, it will examine the economic and institutional assumptions underlying this strategy; the policy choices made in terms of the balance between the roles of the public and private sectors; the choice among alternative public spending priorities; the way in which possible downside risks are addressed; the approach to financing fiscal initiatives; and the sustainability of the fiscal and debt strategy. Section IV will then assess whether the GOK’s chosen policy strategies appear both responsive to the long-term policy challenges identified in Section II and robust to the downside risks in the external economic environment.II. Medium to long-run challenges In Vision 2030, Kenya aspires to achieve middle-income status by 2030 through the realization of a 10 percent per annum real growth rate for the period 2012-2030. This is a highly ambitious objective although not an unreasonable aspiration, given the importance of Kenya to the regional economy of East Africa and the many assets that Kenya possesses in terms of its human capital and its industrial, service, and tourism potential.But achieving this goal will require that Kenya successfully pursue disciplined and ambitious policies that will confront the many domestic and external policy challenges it now faces. It will also require a bit of luck and a bit of skill by Kenyan policy-makers in adapting to the uncertain global economic policy environment that will undoubtedly emerge in the next two decades. Fiscal policy will need to be finely balanced if Kenya is to achieve the Vision 2030 objectives.It must facilitate rapid growth—both through the provision of needed infrastructure and human capital—while still being responsive both to the demands of the population for basic public services and the potential downside risks that may emerge. Yet fiscal policy must also be sustainable. Fiscal space will be precious if the various expen diture objectives are to be met without compromising macroeconomic stability or raising doubts about Kenya’s solvency. If growth proves less than anticipated—as occurred in 2008 and as expected in 2009—the needed fiscal space may prove inadequate to finance the required government outlays.Under these circumstances, unrestrained recourse to additional borrowing could jeopardize Kenya’s solvency and crowd-out its private sector. a. Domestic policy challenges to which fiscal policy should respond There are several important obstacles that could impede Kenya’s progress toward achieving the high growth rate targeted through 2030. First, after years of neglect, Kenya has only recently begun to address the inadequacy of its infrastructure for the realization of a modern, 21st century economy.Deficiencies exist in terms of Kenya’s port facilities, its trunk and secondary roads, its railroad system, its energy plant, and in the availability of clean water and sanitation facilities. While telecommunications has been the bright light of the last several years, there is still much to be done to make the system fully accessible and the proposed undersea fiber-optic cable, The East Africa Marine System, should help in this regard. Vision 2030’s emphasis on rebuilding and creating a productive infrastructure is rightly supported by international observers (e. . , in the IMF’s 2009 staff report) and appears responsive to this challenge. [2] But creating this infrastructure will be costly and could easily outstrip the domestic financial capacity of the government if it were to go it alone, justifying the government’s interest in seeking public-private partnerships as well as external financial support. Second, while Kenya is blessed with relatively a high quality and deep base of human capital, it has yet to find ways to deploy it more efficiently.Among African countries, Kenya has always been known for the high as pirations of its population for education and the drive of its citizens for self-betterment. But the productivity of Kenya’s educational system has long been a source of concern, and the continuing weaknesses in the health system have meant that infant and mortality rates are still too high, that malaria still poses a heavy health burden, and that the AIDS epidemic has cost Kenya significant losses among its most productive citizens. 3] The success of many Asian countries in realizing high growth rates when they were at Kenya’s stage in the demographic transition derived from their ability to productively employ the rising share of the working-age population. Strengthening the quality and exploiting the productive use of Kenya’s human capital, particularly looking forward, must thus be a high policy priority. Third, governance concerns remain an obstacle to Kenya fully exploiting its growth potential through foreign investment inflows.While the World Bankâ€℠¢s â€Å"Doing Business Indicators† suggest some improvements in creating the conditions for a receptive foreign investment climate (with Kenya ranking among the world’s top ten reformers in 2006/07), Kenya still ranks only 82nd on this index out of 181 countries, and ranks 147 out of 180 countries in terms of Transparency International’s index of perceptions of corruption for 2008. [4] Prioritizing and effectively carrying out the necessary institutional reforms, while not requiring substantial fiscal resources, may still prove costly and difficult in political economy terms.More important, it may play a critical role in determining whether Kenya can meet its ambitious investment goals in infrastructure, given that they are to be primarily financed from private sources through public-private partnerships. Fourth, to achieve its target growth, Kenya will not only need to raise significantly its pace of investment (from an average of 19% of GDP in 2005/06 to 2007 /08 to over 30% by 2012/13), but also to maintain the relatively low incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR) of about 3 that it has experienced over the last few years.The latter may prove difficult. Among low and low-middle income countries, an ICOR of about 4 seems the norm (see World Bank, 2009). For the few non-oil-based countries in the world that have experienced growth rates as high as 10% for a sustained period, investment rates have been in the range of 40% of GDP plus (e. g. , China), reflecting a loss of efficiency in capital investment (and thus a higher ICOR). For Kenya to realize more efficiency from its investments, it must demonstrate a concomitant capacity to mobilize human capital resources effectively (e. . , rectifying both the under- and overstaffing of different public service activities), efficiency in the utilization of capital inputs, adequate attention to routine and periodic maintenance of existing infrastructure and a focus on investments that are of part icularly high return (the latter influencing the appropriate structure of Kenya’s public and private investment programme). Linked to these issues is the low absorptive and implementation capacity in the key infrastructure line ministries, particularly for foreign-financed projects.A key challenge that will determine whether the desired change in the composition of expenditure materializes will be the actual implementation rate of the development budget. In the past, actual expenditures have fallen well short of budget estimates, and in particular, absorption of donor development assistance has been very low—usually below 50 percent of budgeted amounts. Increasing the implementation capacity of the infrastructure ministries, and especially that of the Ministry of Roads and Public Works, will, therefore be critical.Fifth, generating the required financing for a higher level of investment will be a further challenge. A sound fiscal policy will constrain how much can dire ctly be provided from the budget, leading to the acknowledged need to rely on the private sector, domestic and external, for the remaining financing. The modalities by which Kenya provides incentives and deals with the risks associated with public-private partnerships, and improves governance, will determine the extent of foreign capital participation in Kenya’s investment programme.Six, despite the progress made in reducing poverty incidence from 57% in 2002 to 46% in 2006 (MTBSP, paragraph. 14), Kenya still faces high income and asset inequality as well as significant regional inequality in incomes and assets. While rapid growth over the next two decades would do much to reduce absolute poverty levels, the number of absolute poor will still remain substantial. Together with continued high inequality, this would constitute a significant drag, in political economy terms, on Kenya’s ability to obtain popular support for an ambitious resource mobilization and savings eff ort.Certainly, unless addressed, income inequality will constrain growth in the country, dampen the scope for poverty reduction and create an environment for social and political unrest. Seventh, and linked to the latter point, current fiscal decentralization efforts to address regional inequality through the use of a devolved funds mechanism are subject to potential vulnerabilities. In principle, through community-based projects, such an approach can have a positive impact on grass roots[5] support.However, slippages in governance and accountability, efficiency, or effectiveness in the use of devolved funds could undermine their potential impact, with political pressures engendering spending programs that would not normally meet benefit-cost criteria or address the existing regional maldistribution of resources. In the medium term, three potential threats to the effectiveness of a devolved funds approach require attention.First, is the poverty-weighted allocation criteria, which ef fectively incentivises constituencies to be ranked poor in order to qualify for a higher share of the devolved resources. Second, the provision of such ‘free’ budgetary resources may dampen revenue generation efforts at the local level. Third, the disconnect between community-based projects and the provision for operations and maintenance within the central budget can limit efficiency and effectiveness in the use of these funds[6].All of the above factors might be considered as relevant in formulating current budgetary policies. But Kenya also confronts other future developments that can easily undermine the long-term capacity of the economy to sustain rapid growth. These include: †¢ The rapid rate of urbanization: By 2025, Nairobi and Mombasa will have to invest in urban infrastructure (e. g. , housing, water, sewage, transport, schools and health facilities) to accommodate a virtual doubling of their populations. 7] The size of other urban centers will more than double by 2025 (from 3. 8 million to 9. 3 million). [8] Overall, the urban population is projected to triple to 21-22 million. Such urban infrastructure investments are likely to be of a lower overall productivity (thus implying a higher ICOR), further constraining the prospects for achieving the high efficiency level required to realize a 10% annual growth rate. †¢ The continued high overall population growth rate: Kenya’s fertility rate of 5 is high.The population aged 5-14—the prospective primary and secondary school-age groups—is anticipated to rise during 2005-2030 by at least 60 percent (more than 5. 2 million children). This highlights both the prospective increase that will be needed in spending on Kenya’s primary and secondary school system and the substantial expansion that is likely to be needed for tertiary education facilities. The latter will be particularly costly, and will put enormous pressure on the education budget (with one tertia ry student costing the equivalent of 40 primary students).Without policies that will encourage a reduced fertility rate, Kenya’s capacity to create fiscal space by shifting the composition of government expenditure towards growth-enhancing investments will be severely limited. †¢ The pressures for job creation arising from population growth: In the next 6 years, Kenya’s education system will produce at least 14 million new school leavers seeking jobs. While the public sector cannot be responsible for their employment, government expenditure policies will need to be sensitive to the job creation possibilities associated with the realization of the government’s expenditure program.This burgeoning employment challenge also highlights the importance associated with a successful transition to a high growth policy framework, since this will be the key to meeting the continuing pressure for job creation over the medium- to long-term. †¢ Cost pressures in the public sector: as with most middle-income and industrial economies, rapid productive growth in the economy typically will outpace productivity growth in the government sector.As wages in the public sector respond to market wage developments in the private sector, this will create cost-push pressures on public service delivery (particularly in the social sectors) (the so-called â€Å"Baumol effect†), pushing up the recurrent cost budget and generating further need for a higher revenue share. †¢ The looming costs of climate change: Recent World Bank reports suggest that Kenya is among the countries most at risk from an increased frequency and intensity of drought conditions.Addressing the potential deleterious effects on agricultural productivity will require a combination of intensified investment in water-control systems that promote enhanced efficiency in the use of water resources; a further shift in the role of nonagricultural outputs (and thus a capacity to become co mpetitive in earning the foreign exchange required for a higher level of food imports); and new R&D efforts at promoting agricultural techniques robust to drought and uncertain precipitation conditions.Given the importance of Mombasa as Kenya’s principal port, the probability of a sea level rise raises the question of when it will become necessary for Kenya to undertake the investments required to cope with the potential longer-term damages to Mombasa and what alternative approaches might be needed to ensure a continued viable port capacity. Less of a challenge and more of an opportunity is the possibility that Kenya might be able to exploit its comparative advantage with respect to solar and geo-thermal energy generation, and earn additional export and fiscal revenues from selling carbon credits to other high-emission countries. The budgetary risks associated with recognized contingent liabilities: the most obvious include those associated with the pay-as-you-go budgetary fu nding of civil service pensions; the potential for the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) to be relatively unfunded; and the possibility of losses associated with the parastatal sector. The anticipated effort by the Government to seek public-private partnerships in a number of infrastructure projects carries with it the potential for additional contingent liabilities. b. External policy challengesKenya’s ability to achieve its Vision 2030 objectives is not wholly subject to its own making. The global financial crisis which commenced in 2008 has adversely impacted Kenya, and highlighted the importance of external factors in influencing the growth of an economy. Kenya is vitally integrated within the global economy, being dependent on external commodity markets for its exports and critical energy imports, sensitive to the state of global tourism markets, significantly reliant on remittances, a recipient of aid flows, and ambitious in its pursuit of both direct foreign investm ent flows and possible external credits.In geopolitical terms, it has already experienced terrorist incidents and is a vital transport hub for many important countries in Central Africa. But of course the future is uncertain, particularly if one is considering policy options looking out more than 20 years. There is, thus, an important argument for seeking a policy program that is robust to potential downside risks and the possibility of very different external environments. One approach to exploring the robustness of the Vision 2030 fiscal strategy is to examine its viability in the context of alternative scenarios of the future.In 2005, the World Bank undertook just such an exercise to consider alternative scenarios for how the global economy might evolve through 2020. Each of the three scenarios elaborated were meant to constitute â€Å"relevant, compelling, plausible, and logically consistent†, but, importantly, divergent stories of what the global economy might look like in 2020. As emphasized by the Bank, â€Å"no single scenario will ever come true in its entirety, but if it is to be a valuable stone against which to sharpen one’s strategy, one must believe it just might! Box 3 provides a brief summary of these three different worlds, and section IV will examine more concretely the robustness of Vision 2030 in the context of these scenarios. At this point, what is important to emphasize are the key external policy factors to which the success of Vision 2030 might prove sensitive, and the way in which these scenarios highlight potential issues to which Kenyan policy makers might need to be responsive. Among the key factors that could affect Kenya’s prospects, the following appear most relevant: Robustness of global growth: Kenya’s capacity for mobilizing the fiscal resources required to implement its public investment program (and equally the prospect for the private sector to also achieve the targeted growth in its investment share) will be strongly influenced by the pace and structure of global growth. Given its dependence on external commodity and tourism services, a slower global growth scenario (such as in the GU scenario) would probably be reflected in slower Kenyan growth, lower fiscal revenues, and the need for a smaller budgetary envelope.How would the budget be prioritized in such circumstances? Would the same infrastructure and human capital investment priorities be relevant under a lower global growth scenario? Certainly, with the pace of population and urban growth (not to mention climate change) not affected by external factors, the pressure would be to cutback on precisely those investments most likely to generate additional growth and employment!Moreover, if global growth were to be dominated by a higher share derived from emerging markets, would this adversely affect Kenya (perhaps through reduced tourism from industrial countries)? Would reduced dynamism in the US and European economies imply a lower level of concessional financing, or would Kenya be able to obtain such assistance from alternative sources (e. g. , China and India)? With changes in the pace or sources of global growth, would Kenya still be able to realize the currently anticipated level of direct foreign investment flows?Would these derive from different sources and if so, would they be directed to the same sectors? |Box 1: Alternative Scenarios for the World of 2020 | | | |The following provides a brief summary of how these different worlds will appear, with our focus principally on the character of | |the alternative potential external economic environments facing Kenya. | | |Affluence, Ltd. (AL) | |Years of rapid, US-centered, economic growth will nearly double world GDP, an annual increase of more than 4 percent. States have | |shifted their focus from guaranteeing outcomes to providing opportunities.Rapid innovation and new technologies enable continuous | |improvements in productivity, whic h global corporations spread around the world as they expand. But economic success is not | |universal. Forty less competitive countries have been left behind due to geographic isolation, poor governance, small market size, | |or lack of strategic relevance. For most major economies, however, the United States has guaranteed political stability and open | |trade-conditions that have encouraged the creation of massive amounts of wealth. |Globalization Unwinding (GU) | |Through 2020, economic growth has been slow worldwide, averaging less than 2 percent for more than a decade. Weaker states have | |collapsed, as economic pressure translates into domestic unrest, while other states have resorted to authoritarianism or populism | |in order to stay in power. Costs of military interventions, energy price volatility, and years of deficits brought a sharp | |contraction in the US economy, and the consequent dollar crisis triggered a global economic downturn.Europe and Japan lacked the | |dy namism to lead the world out of recession, while the growth engines of China, India, Korea, and other â€Å"emerging economies† all | |sputtered-as did those of Russia and Latin America. Most developing countries have proven unable to mitigate the worst effects of | |the downturn. A deep-seated cynicism about the value of free markets prevails in the world, and economic decisions are generally | |focused on short-term returns. Protectionism grew rapidly following the downturn, and the path to recovery looks difficult. | | |Competing Horizons (CH) | | | |Large emerging markets of China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and much of Southeast Asia have sustained rapid long-term | |growth—particularly in comparison to older industrialized economies—and a second wave of developing countries has joined their | |ranks. The developing world accounted for almost two-thirds of global GDP growth between 2005 and 2020.Regional economic powers | |have started to contest US primacy in their regions, and in global forums. Poles of cutting-edge R&D have emerged, with growing | |numbers of firms from these high-growth countries rivaling the multinational companies from the United States, Europe, and Japan. | |Many other developing countries have grown rapidly following improved policies and governance and benefiting from rising volumes of| |global trade. However, rising tensions between Old World and New World powers seem inevitable in the medium term.Despite strong | |networks of trade and continued rising demand for raw materials and basic commodities, growth in parts of the developing | |world—particularly in parts of Africa—remains low. In addition, the environmental costs of broad-based growth are significant: | |accelerating environmental degradation and severe resource constraints for water, strategic minerals, and energy are the order of | |the day. | | | |* Source: World Bank, Rehearsing for the Future: the World and Development in 2020 (Wa shington DC, 2006) (www. worldbank. rg/2020) | †¢ Scale of security threats: the alternative scenarios highlight the potential for different degrees of ethnic, terrorist and regional security tensions. Kenya may thus need to be prepared for the possibility of a higher level of security-related military outlays than presently envisaged under Vision 2030. Depending on the extent of external financial support to deal with terrorism and regional security threats, this may prevent the realization of the current strategy to shift funding away from such â€Å"other sectors† for the purpose of creating fiscal space for social or growth-oriented outlays. Nature of the trade environment: the extent to which further global trade barriers are reduced, or rather shifted towards bilateral or regional trading arrangements, may potentially influence the pace of growth and potentially the sources of Kenya’s principal comparative advantage, again influencing both the prospects for revenue mobilization and the focus of the investment programme. †¢ Importance of governance concerns: Were there to be a shift in the global economic center more towards emerging market countries, there might be a reduced incentive for Kenya to focus as much on governance issues.However, given the possibility of the AL scenario also arising, and given the merits on political economy grounds for strengthening Kenya’s governance and regulatory system (particularly given the increased role envisaged for PPPs), current strategies would appear robust to the alternative possible scenarios. †¢ Pace of technological change: Alternative scenarios also suggest differences in the future pace of technological change. This could be important, particularly with respect to certain kinds of infrastructure (e. g. , in the energy and possibly the ICT sectors).Would the nature of infrastructure investment decisions be influenced by the possibility that newer and more advanced technolo gies might make existing infrastructure or technologies inappropriate? All of these uncertainties raise the question of whether fiscal policy, to be robust under alternative scenarios, should be more conservatively managed, particularly with respect to the level of nonconcessional borrowing that would be appropriate in financing the investment program (or more pointedly, in the level of any fiscal debt anchor that might be considered in managing fiscal policy).They also raise questions as to the core investment programme which would appear appropriate, given the uncertainty as to which scenario might eventuate. III. Kenya’s fiscal strategy underpinning the Vision 2030 A. Background and macroeconomic assumptions Under the Economic Recovery Strategy (ERS) covering the period 2003-07, Kenya made significant progress in macroeconomic management and in implementing key structural and governance reforms. As a result, the economy staged a remarkable broad-based recovery as growth of real GDP accelerated from 0. 5 percent in 2002 to 7. percent in 2007. In the aftermath of the post-election-violence (PEV) in early 2008 and the global economic slowdown, growth fell sharply in 2008 to 1. 7 percent. In 2009, the economy is projected to rebound only slightly to 2. 5 percent . Underpinning the good economic performance of recent years was the implementation of sound macroeconomic policies, and in particular, through 2007, the pursuit of a prudent fiscal stance in which the overall budget deficit (on a commitment basis, including grants) was contained to an average of about 2 per cent of GDP compared with a target of 3. percent in the ERS. As a result, there was a net domestic repayment of 0. 7 percent of GDP in 2007/08, relative to a net borrowing of 3. 6 percent of GDP in 2002/03, thereby contributing to a decline in the ratio of net domestic debt to GDP from 23 per cent in 2002/03 to roughly 17 per cent in June 2008. This facilitated a reduction in interest rates a nd an expansion of credit to the private sector in support of productive activities.With the conclusion of the ERS at end-2007, the Kenyan Government elaborated a medium-term development plan, the National Vision 2030, aimed at achieving rapid economic growth and poverty reduction. The vision had three pillars: †¢ an economic pillar whose goal was to achieve and then sustain annual real GDP growth of 10 percent by 2012 with a view to making Kenya a middle-income country by the year 2030; †¢ a social pillar aimed at creating a cohesive society enjoying equitable social development.This pillar would address inequality and poverty challenges faced by many Kenyans and move Kenya towards achieving some of the Millennium Development Goals; and †¢ a political pillar calling for an issues-based, accountable and democratic political system. Achieving the Vision 2030 growth target would require Kenya to increase its investment share in GDP from about 22 percent in 2007/08 to 33 percent by 2012/13. Over the same period, domestic savings would need to increase from about 16 percent of GDP to 28 percent. Details of the key indicators underpinning the macroeconomic framework are provided in Table 1. Table 1: Key Macroeconomic Indicators Underpinning Vision-2030 and the Medium-Term Plan | | |2007/08 |2008/09 |2009/10 |2010/11 |2011/12 |2012/13 | | | |Medium-term projections | |(Annual percentage change) | |National accounts and prices | |6. 2 |8. 3 |9. |9. 7 |10. 0 | |Real GDP |5. 7 |7. 5 |5. 0 |5. 0 |5. 0 |5. 0 | |CPI (end of period) |28. 5 | | | | | | |(In percent of GDP) | |Investment and savings | | | | | | | |Investment |21. |21. 9 |23. 3 |27. 3 |29. 9 |32. 6 | |o/w Central Government |8. 2 |8. 6 |8. 4 |8. 6 |9. 0 |9. 5 | |Gross domestic savings |15. 9 |15. 1 |17. 4 |21. 8 |24. 6 |27. 5 | |o/w Central Government |0. 4 |1. 6 |2. 7 |2. 9 |3. 2 |3. | |Central government budget | | | | | | | |Total revenue |21. 3 |21. 6 |21. 8 |21. 8 |21. 9 |22. 0 | |Total e xpenditure and net lending | | | | | | | |Overall balance (incl. grants) |29. 4 |28. 6 |27. 6 |27. 6 |27. 8 |28. | |Domestic debt, net (eop) | | | | | | | |Total Public Sector Debt |-6. 2 |-5. 6 |-4. 2 |-4. 0 |-4. 0 |-4. 0 | | |17. 8 |16. 8 |16. 5 |15. 7 |15. 0 |14. 3 | | |41. 6 |43. 0 |40. 2 |41. 3 |38. 0 |38. | |External sector | | | | | | | |Current account (incl. official transfers) | | | | | | | |Reserves (months of import cover) |-6. 0 |-6. 8 |-5. 9 |-5. 5 |-5. 3 |-5. 1 | | | | | | | | | | |3. |3. 5 |3. 7 |3. 9 |4. 2 |4. 5 | Source: Ministry of Finance; Medium-Term Budget Strategy Paper, 2008/09-2010/11. The fiscal framework underpinning the Vision 2030 scenario called for increased spending on the critical â€Å"flagship† projects, while at the same time ensuring that the overall fiscal deficit (after grants) would progressively narrow from 6. 2 percent of GDP in 2007/08 to a sustainable level of around 4 percent of GDP over the medium term. This would allow net domest ic debt to decline substantially from 17. 8 percent of GDP to 14. 3 percent by 2012/13.The strengthened fiscal position would be supported by the implementation of revenue administration measures by the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), which would sustain the revenue-to-GDP ratio at around 22 percent throughout the medium-term. Under Vision 2030, public expenditure was to be restructured in favor of development spending and other priority social interventions. Improved management of public sector finances was expected to lead to a positive shift in investor and creditor confidence as well as to boost growth by providing the fiscal resources to raise public development spending from 8. percent of GDP in 2007/08 to 9 ? percent of GDP by 2012/13. B. The Medium-Term Plan, 2008-2012 (MTP)[9] To understand how the Kenya government envisaged the role of fiscal policy in its broad vision for development in the coming two decades, it is useful to begin with the first five-year development stra tegy, the Medium-Term Plan (MTP), issued in 2008 and intended to be the instrument for implementing the Vision 2030 development strategy. Two important elements underpin the MTP. First, the MTP clarified how overall resources in the economy would be allocated among the three pillars and the enabling sectors (i. . the Foundations for National Transformation) during the course of the first five-years of the Vision 2030 (see Annex Figure 1 and Annex Table 1). In particular, it highlighted the overwhelming importance that would be played by investments in infrastructure projects, particularly beginning in 2010/11. [10] While in 2008/09 and 2009/10, 21 percent of the resources was to be on infrastructure,[11] this share was to rise in the three subsequent years to about 60 percent with a heavy emphasis on roads (reflecting the inadequate maintenance and limited construction on new roads during the 1990s and earlier).The MTP also indicated that (with the exception of a short burst in 2009 /10), the social sector would absorb about 20 percent of available resources. Spending on the economic sector pillar was to drop sharply after 2008/09 (being replaced by infrastructure spending), but would then be held roughly constant for the remaining four years of the MTP period (see Annex Table 1). [12] Second, given the limited resources available to Government, the MTP emphasized that the financing of infrastructure should rely heavily on the private sector through the use of public-private-partnership (PPP) financing initiatives.For the five-year period, at least 80 percent of infrastructure spending should expect to be financed through PPPs, particularly starting in 2010/11. Thus, the success of infrastructure financing would be predicated on two important fundamentals: first, that domestic savings could be increased from about 16 percent of GDP in 2007/08 to reach 28 percent of GDP in 2012/13 and second, that a legal and regulatory framework for public-private-partnerships could quickly be put in place so investors would feel comfortable about investing in this strategy.Regarding the latter, we note that a PPP framework has been developed but has yet to be made operational. C. Medium-Term Budget Strategy Paper, 2009/10-2011//12 (MTBSP) Each year, the MTBSP provides much more detail on the government’s fiscal framework over the next three budget years, not only in terms of the allocation and financing of the budget for the different government ministries, but more importantly with regard to the key policy objectives. The most recent MTBSP was issued in June 2009 at the time of the BudgetSpeech for fiscal year 2009/10. Unlike the MTP, the MTBSP is guided by the need to be prudent on growth prospects to mitigate the risk of being overly optimistic, and in the event that higher than expected growth rates are achieved, the medium-term macroeconomic framework can be modified accordingly, with the higher revenues allocated to priority expenditures. Ta ble 2 below summarizes the main macroeconomic indicators underpinning the more cautious fiscal framework in the 2009 MTBSP.The table reveals the striking contrast between what had been assumed in the Medium-Term Plan for the next few years and the new assumptions dictated by recent domestic and external developments. Reflecting the domestic and external shocks of 2008 and 2009—the violence following the December 2007 election and the global economic slowdown—real GDP growth over the next three years is now projected to average under 5 percent, much lower than the 6. 8 percent projected in the 2008 MTBSP and half the 10 percent targeted under Vision 2030. | |Table 2: Key Macroeconomic Indicators Underpinning the MTBSP, | | |2007/08 |2008/09 |2009/10 |2010/11 |2011/12 | | | |Prel. Est. | | | | | | |Medium term projections | |(Annual percentage change) | |National accounts and prices | | | | | | |Real GDP |4. 0 |2. 5 |3. 1 |5. 2 |6. 4 | |CPI (end of period) |29. |18. 0 |10. 1 |5. 9 |5. 0 | |(In percent of GDP) | |Investment and savings |19. 1 |18. 1 |19. 2 | | | |Investment |8. 2 |7. 6 |10. 2 |22. 1 |23. 3 | |o/w Central Government |13. 5 |11. 9 |14. 1 |8. 9 |9. 1 | |Gross national savings |1. |1. 7 |2. 3 |17. 3 |19. 0 | |o/w Central Government | | | |3. 1 |3. 5 | |Central government budget | | | | | | |Total revenue |22. 0 |22. 6 |22. 3 |22. 5 |22. 6 | |Total expenditure and net lending |27. 2 |28. 5 |30. 3 |28. |28. 3 | |Overall balance (incl. grants) |-3. 5 |-4. 9 |-6. 6 |-4. 5 |-4. 2 | |Domestic debt, net (eop) |16. 9 |18. 5 |20. 6 |21. 1 |21. 1 | |Total Public Sector Debt |39. 3 |42. 6 |44. 5 |44. 3 |43. 8 | |External sector | | | | | | |Current account incl. off. ransfers |-5. 6 |-6. 2 |-5. 1 |-4. 8 |-4. 3 | |Reserves (months of import cover) |3. 4 |2. 8 |2. 9 |3. 1 |3. 5 | Source: Ministry of Finance; and the MTBSP, 2009/10-2011/12 With respect to the saving-investment balance, there is also a significant divergence between the MTP? s mediu m-term targets and the revised targets in the 2009 MTBSP. For example, the saving-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 19 percent compared with 24. 6 percent in the MTP in 2011/12—a shortfall of 5. percentage points of GDP. Similarly, the investment-to-GDP ratio is now projected to reach only 23. 3 percent in 2011/12 compared with 29. 9 percent in the MTP—a shortfall of 6. 6 percentage points of GDP. Virtually all the projected shortfall in both saving and investment are associated with the private sector as public sector saving and capital spending are broadly as envisaged in the MTP. The large projected shortfalls in private sector saving and investment suggests that the Vision 2030 growth objectives are unlikely to be met within the timeframe originally envisaged of 2012/13.Moreover, unless the level of productivity rises sharply (or the ICOR is reduced markedly compared with the target in the MTP) in the next few years, achieving the growth objectives of the Vision 2 030 with lower investment is unlikely to be realized. Therefore, to avoid a prolonged divergence between actual outcomes and the Vision 2030 objectives, it is critical for Kenya to fast track the implementation of key reforms aimed at rapidly improving the investment climate, while putting in place the institutional framework to facilitate private sector participation in infrastructure projects through the PPPs.Without these reforms, the timeline for achieving the Vision 2030 growth objectives will not only be delayed substantially but could be seriously compromised. As in the previous year, the 2009 MTBSP also aims at maintaining revenue collection at around 22 percent of GDP over the medium term. This is quite reasonable by historical Kenyan standards and high by Sub-Saharan African standards, and reflects an assumption that revenue collection will keep up with growth in nominal GDP.No major tax rate increases are envisaged in line with Kenya’s intention to maintain a compe titive climate for foreign and domestic investors by reducing the cost of doing business. Avoiding higher taxes seems, at this time, to be a reasonable policy position, though the issue of a further increase in the overall tax share will become more important to consider as one moves further into the next decade (as discussed below). The MTBSP rightly takes a cautious view on the availability of grants and concessional loans, which are projected at roughly 3. 5 percent of GDP annually through 2011/12.However, even for this amount of financing to become available, the MTBSP recognizes that improving public expenditure and financial management will be critical in order to give comfort to development partners that their resources are being efficiently used to support economic growth and poverty reduction. The decision to exclude budget support in formulating the medium-term framework is informed by the recent success of having more predictability in budget execution by ensuring that re sources allocated to line ministries are not disrupted by the ups-and-downs of donor relations and conditionalities.This practice has been highlighted positively by Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. However, as the 2008 MTBSP emphasized, the exclusion of budgetary support should not suggest a slowdown in implementing reforms in public expenditure management, in the financial sector, and in the restructuring and/or privatizing of public enterprises. Indeed, the assumed lower donor inflows should be accompanied by an intensification of the pace of structural reforms, especially in the modernization of tax and customs administration, to ensure Kenya’s recent financial independence is sustained in line with KRA’s motto of â€Å"Tulipe Ushuru–Tujitegemee. †On the expenditure side, the 2009 MTBSP proposes an increase in overall spending from 28. 5 percent of GDP in 2008/09 to 30. 3 percent followed by a gradual reduction thereafter to about 28 perce nt by 2011/12, while simultaneously effecting a slight shift in the composition of expenditure towards development projects. As a result, the share of recurrent outlays in total outlays will have declined from a high of 90 percent in 2002/03 to 80 percent in 2006/07 and to 67 percent by 2010/11. This is consistent with Vision 2030’s objective of increased funding for the flagship infrastructure projects while still maintaining macroeconomic stability.Reflecting the importance of the other pillars of Vision 2030, and in particular, the social pillar, the proposed expenditure profile in the 2009 MTBSP provides for spending on education and health to remain broadly unchanged at around 30 percent of total spending over the medium-term (Table 3). [13] This follows significant increases in resource allocation to both sectors in recent years. Nevertheless, it may still be necessary to provide more resources to both sectors (see below) and this will require careful prioritization of spending to create the fiscal space for the shift in budget priorities.In particular, spending on other parts of the budget (including public administration, defense, internal security, etc), which is currently projected to remain broadly stable at around 46 percent of total spending, may need to be rationalized in order to release resources for the social sectors. . |Table 3: Spending on the Social and Economic Sectors (in percent of total expenditure) 1/ | | |   |2007/08 |2008/09 |2009/10 |2010/11 |2011/12 | |Social Sectors |28. % |29. 3% |30. 4% |30. 6% |29. 6% | | Health | 6. 1% |5. 7% | 6. 8% |6. 0% |6. 0% | | Education |22. 0% |23. 6% |23. 6% |24. 7% |23. 7% | |Economic Sectors |†¦ |24. 8% | 22. 9% |23. 6% |24. 8% | | Productive, incl.Agriculture |†¦ |4. 3% |3. 5% |4. 3% |4. 4% | | Physical Infrastructure |†¦ |20. 5% |19. 5% |19. 3% |20. 4% | |Other |†¦ |45. 9% |46. 7% |46. 3% |45. 6% | |Total |†¦ |100. 0 |100. 0 |100. 0 |100. 0 | / Source: The Medi um-Term Budget Strategy Paper, 2009/10-2011/12 Based on the projected revenue and expenditure, the overall budget deficit (after grants) is estimated to initially rise from 4. 9 percent in 2008/09 to about 6 percent of GDP in 2009/10—reflecting the impact of the fiscal stimulus package—and then decline to 4. 2 percent by 2011/12. (see Table 2). It is anticipated that concessional financing, mainly from multilateral institutions, non-concessional borrowing through the issuance of sovereign bonds, and domestic borrowing will cover the deficits.The projected domestic borrowing (including issuance of domestic infrastructure bonds) would result in a gradual increase in the stock of outstanding net domestic debt from 17 percent of GDP in 2007/08 to about 21 percent in 2011/12. This increase, while necessary in the context of the economic slowdown and government policy response, carries with it the risk of potentially crowding out of the private sector. This could pose diffic ulties in allowing the private sector to play its role in financing economic activities consistent with achieving the higher growth path. D. Overall fiscal and debt sustainabilityThe projected medium-term fiscal deficits are broadly consistent with fiscal and debt sustainability. Throughout the period covered by the MTBSP, the ratio of public sector debt-to-GDP fluctuates within a narrow range of 40-44 percent of GDP, implying that the net present value of debt-to–GDP ratio is well below 35 percent. [14] It should be noted that the issuance of sovereign bonds to fund high-return infrastructure projects does carry some debt sustainability risks arising from the exchange rate, making it important that the projects be subjected to rigorous cost-effectiveness analysis.Also, some caution may be needed with regard to the timing of issuance of these bonds, given the increased borrowing spreads currently facing many developing countries, as well as the recent and potential further de preciation of the Kenya Shilling against the Euro and the US dollar. Regarding contingent liabilities, a significant amount has already been taken into account in the context of the financial restructuring of the National Bank of Kenya (over Ksh. 21 billion) and during the course of privatizing Kenya Telecom.However, owing to lack of data, not all potential contingent liabilities from the parastatal sector and from the pension scheme have been included in the debt sustainability analysis. Including such contingent liabilities would increase the official public debt and the risk of the overall public debt becoming unsustainable. Another potential source of contingent liabilities is the Government’s planned heavy reliance on public-private-partnerships to finance many of the infrastructure projects for Vision 2030. It will be critical to ensure that increased use of the PPP framework is well managed and minimizes potential contingent liabilities.Reliance on PPPs in some instanc es involves some assumption of the government ultimately, in the future, financing the purchase of the privately-built assets. Moreover, depending on the terms of an individual PPP, the government could bear a number of potential risks associated with each project (demand risk, financing risk, political risk, supply risk, legal risk, etc). The Government appears to be cognizant of this danger, and intends to establish a PPP unit in the Ministry of Finance to vet all new PPP funded projects.In the meantime, the Government should avoid any new PPP projects before the finalization of the PPP legal and regulatory framework. E. The Potential Role of PPPs Can and should Kenya realistically rely on PPP mechanisms? First, there are some areas of public infrastructural spending where potentially the private sector may be willing to invest and provide services without the need for a PPP (e. g. , as has already been demonstrated in the telecommunications sector). In other sectors, the challeng e is for the government to ensure that the same public policy factors that originally motivated public sector investment and provision, e. . , equity factors, natural monopoly conditions, or externalities, are taken into account in the way in which the private sector produces and delivers services. Here the government’s task is to ensure that a clear and well-designed regulatory structure is in place, particularly with regard to pricing policy. Second, private financing in the form of a PPP entails both opportunities and risks to a government, and management of these risks is essential if there is to be a genuine sharing of both the gains and the associated risks between the public and private sectors.What makes a PPP attractive to a government is the ability to harness the potential of the private sector to construct and operate a facility with greater efficiency than would be the case for the public sector, with such efficiency gains offsetting the presumably higher borrowi ng or equity costs associated with private as opposed to government borrowing. Such efficiency gains are particularly relevant when the private sector can bundle the construction and operating phases of a project, thus allowing for internalization of cost-reducing incentives (Scandizzo and Sanguinetti, 2009).At the same time, by substituting the private sector for public provision, the government can also save scarce public funds and relieve strained budgets. But PPPs can also be used, inappropriately, to bypass spending controls and move public investments off budget and debt off the government’s balance sheet. This could leave governments bearing most of the risks involved and face large fiscal costs over the medium to long term.Experience in other countries suggests that to work effectively and for a PPP to be an appropriate approach, several key prerequisites should be satisfied: the quality of services should be contractible; there should be competition or incentive-base d regulation; as noted, there should be an appropriate distribution of risks; the institutional framework should be characterized by political commitment, good governance, clear supporting legislation (including with regard to pricing); and a transparent procedure for award of performance incentives and enforcement of sanctions throughout the concession period.Finally, a government needs to have a capacity, both in the finance and sector ministries, to effectively appraise and prioritize public infrastructure projects; design PPPs; evaluate affordability, value for money and risk transfer; correctly select those projects that are appropriate to undertake as PPPs; draft and scrutinize contracts, monitor, manage and regulate ongoing projects, and undertake periodic performance evaluations (see Sutherland et al, 2009; Scandizzo and Sanguinetti, 2009; IMF, 2004; and Tchakarov, 2007).This underscores the importance of Kenya moving at a deliberate pace to put in place a strengthened manag ement capacity in the Ministry of Finance and given, past governance failures, caution to ensure that the government sector is not burdened with excessive risks that ought legitimately to be borne by the private sector. In terms of negotiating the distribution of risk, the experience of Latin American countries with PPPs suggests that some are appropriately borne by the private partner—those associated with the construction or the operation of the project in particular.Others, such as political and regulatory risk, clearly should be borne by the government. Others—such as market demand risk, some supply side risks (the cost of foreign exchange, some factor cost risks), may be influenced by government but not fully under its control. How such risks are shared is an obviously important and sensitive aspect in the negotiation of a PPP with a private partner, since it will bear on how large are the contingent risks to which a government is exposed. Experience also has taug ht that governments entering into PPPs need to be aware, that there is a strong tendency for contracts to be renegotiated.Tchakarov (2007) notes that in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 30 percent of PPPs were renegotiated (particularly in transportation and water projects), often within the first two to three years of the award of a PPP. Key factors forcing renegotiation have included the fixed term nature of concession contracts, the challenges posed by demand risk, poor decisions at the design stage, government acceptance of aggressive bidding, or changes in the rules of the game by the government after the contract award.Tchakarov also notes that an â€Å"improper regulatory framework and poor regulatory oversight [can] increase the chances of conflict, rent capture by operators, or opportunistic behavior by government. † In sum, private sector financing offers important opportunities for Kenya to augment its fiscal space for infrastructure, but successful exploitati on of this source requires important capacity building within the government in order to ensure both fiscal savings and efficiency gains relative to public provision.F. Risks The MTBSP recognizes that the underlying medium-term assumptions are not without risks, and that the projected rate of economic growth may not be achieved. Under such circumstances, the MTBSP indicates that the government would take appropriate measures to mitigate the risks to macro-economic stability, such as by delaying or scaling back on expenditures on non-priority programs. However, the MTBSP does not identify which programs would be curtailed should revenues fall short of projection. IV.Assessing the Vision and the Medium-Term Budget Strategy ADoes Vision 2030 and the MTBSP Address the Key Challenges facing Kenya? In assessing Kenya’s fiscal policy going forward, it is probably best to work from the plans indicated in the recent MTBSP, primarily because Vision 2030 and the MTP provide less detail on the macroeconomic and fiscal policy framework. Vision 2030 is also of course more ambitious in its objectives for growth, so that any doubts raised about the MTBSP would only be more the case concerning Vision 2030.At the outset, it is worth pointing out that the fiscal framework in the MTBSP appears to be based on fairly conservative assumptions and has introduced some degree of flexibility that can accommodate several alternative scenarios. In particular, the assumed lower growth in the MTBSP compared with the Vision 2030 is, regrettably, realistic in light of recent global developments. However, the projected constant ratio of revenue-to-GDP ratio also comes at a time when KRA is undertaking significant reforms in the customs and tax administration.This means that there is likely to be a revenue windfall. The projected disbursement of concessional loans in line with GDP assumes no improvement in absorption capacity in the key line ministries from the low levels of between 40-5 0 percent and the authorities have underscored this as an objective to pursue in coming years. With the recent enhanced monitoring of project implementation, the absorption of donor funds should increase. The exclusion of donor budget support from the framework at a time when PFM/PEM reforms are on-going also suggests a potential upside in donor support.Finally even with the increase in government spending associated with the fiscal stimulus, the level of public sector debt to GDP ratio still provides some scope for additional domestic borrowing to fund key infrastructure projects, if warranted, without jeopardizing Kenya’s debt sustainability status. All in all, with the exception of the growth scenario, most of the other assumptions appear fairly cautious and leave room for some over performance. Thugge et al make several key observations on these issues.While acknowledging that the authorities have articulated a sensible and ambitious policy strategy, recent domestic polit ical events and the global economic downturn highlight the setbacks to its realization almost from the outset. Revenue shortfalls, limited efforts at rationalizing spending in noncritical sectors, and the slow pace of civil service rationalization will limit the potential for meeting policy objectives in the health and education sectors, both in terms of levels of spending and efforts at increased sectoral efficiency.The need for increased infrastructural spending is recognized, but financing efforts remain impeded by the lack of progress on setting out the policy framework for enhanced private sector participation and an improved investment climate. Enhanced revenue efforts will also be needed, particularly from personal and corporate income taxes and from an increase in the effective VAT rate. Fifth, the MTP calls for a sharp increase in overall investment in order to achieve the planned 10 percent real GDP growth.However, in light of the sharply lower medium-term levels of saving and investment now projected in the MTBSP, the government needs to move with deliberate speed to implement structural reforms and improve the investment climate in order to raise productivity rapidly. Without a significant increase in total factor productivity, achieving the Vision 2030 growth objectives could be seriously impaired.One implication of the limited amount of resources available to G